Availability heuristic

Availability heuristic is the idea that things that are easier to call up in memory are more likely to happen again. It generally works pretty well-- it is a heuristic after all-- but the problem lies on the fact that vividly and traumatic events register more firmly on the minds landscape and as such may be credited with a greater chance of reoccurring.

When NASA made the decision to launch challenger against the advice of MTI, part of their decision was based on the fact that there had been no failed missions in the last 55 missions launched and there hadn't been an astronaut death since 1976. For those responsible for choosing to go ahead, it was clear to them that the risk was lower since they were easily able to call many examples of successful missions to mind and largely unable to call up any failures.

This article from wiseGEEK breaks down the information a bit more, but I can't attest to it's reliability since there isn't an author credited and there are no links to the information provided. I wish I had been able to find more concrete numbers. An9other example of the availability heuristic is when someone claims to 'know a guy who knows a guy"




Here, Spongebob's assertion that he knew a guy makes his tale more vivid and the plausibility of the tale is greater relative to the factual reality. Even though the likelihood of actually being attacked by a seabear is low, Squidward is more likely to give the story credence because it happened to someone inside of Spongebob's acquaintance-- or so he claims. The vividness of the example is enough that he may regard it as representative even though it is only a single data point.

The vividness of the example affects my husband (and consequently me, since I have to drive with him). My husband is terrified of driving over bridges. He is afraid that they'll collapse under him.

But:

That hardly ever happens.

Since 1855, there have been only 53 recorded bridge collapses in the US. and considering that the US has roughly 570,000 bridges, that number is pretty low.

That averages out to just one collapse every three years.  That's only ten collapses in my husband's lifetime. Only 5 in the time he's been driving. So why is he so afraid of it? Because it's vivid.

 

That's Galloping Gertie (Tacoma Narrows) and the Bay Bridge after the Loma Prieta earthquake. Totally uncommon occurrences that my husband's brain can pull up vividly and convince him that driving over the bridge over the Platte at Louisville is a cause for panic and hyperventilation. Every. Single. Time.

*sigh*

Yeah...

Portfolio project

As part of the requirements for my Social Psychology class, I will be writing up a few theories and concepts that catch my eye over the course of the semester. The entries will be centered around one specific topic, but are likely to reach out and pull in videos and examples from several different formats. Hopefully, somewhere amongst all of my randomness and rambling, some enjoyable information will take place.

All of the pictures and videos included belong to their respective owners. I take no credit for anything but my own thoughts and no copyright infringement is intended.  So, with that out of the way...

 Here we go...

Here we go...